The numbers for SA’s agriculture sector point to strong growth, with total agricultural exports reaching R266.3 billion last year (up 8.8% from 2024). This resulted in a record agricultural trade surplus of R124.7 billion (up 16.4% year-on-year), according to AgriSA’s Agriculture Annual Trade Report 2025. Agricultural exports have grown by 53% since 2021, driven mostly by a 76% increase in exports to Africa over the past five years.

SA agriculture generated an approximate average of R341 million in net foreign exchange per day in 2025. And it only got better in 2026, with AgriSA’s Quarterly Trade Report recording a $1.55 billion first-quarter trade surplus – the highest in history and a 16.1% improvement on the same period last year.

Those export volumes were driven by strong demand and an ample harvest. ‘In these exports, fruits were at the top,’ says Wandile Sihlobo, SA’s Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land. ‘By fruits, we mean citrus, grapes, apples and pears, berries and nuts, among others. These are among the key products driving the exports and output. Of course, the field crops, mainly grains, oilseed and sugar cane, also remain resilient.’

The sector also sustains about 960 000 jobs, mostly in rural areas where it’s the only major employer. According to AgriSA, agriculture contributes up to 15.4% to the national economy, including value chains.

‘South Africa’s agricultural sector is one of the country’s strongest investment themes because it consistently punches above its weight,’ says Sanisha Packirisamy, chief economist at Momentum Investments. ‘While agriculture contributes only around 2.5% to 3% of GDP directly, it supports approximately 5% of formal sector employment and underpins a much larger agroprocessing, logistics and retail value chain in the broader economy.’

Those numbers also make it one of SA’s biggest export success stories, demonstrating, as Packirisamy describes it, ‘the sector’s ability to compete globally despite ongoing domestic economic challenges’.

The investment opportunity extends well beyond farming itself, she says. ‘It includes irrigation infrastructure, renewable energy, cold-chain logistics, storage, agroprocessing and export infrastructure. South Africa also benefits from world-class commercial farming expertise, favourable climatic diversity and the advantage of supplying fresh produce during the northern hemisphere’s winter season.’

Or, as Sihlobo puts it, ‘when thinking about farming, the opportunities lie also beyond the farm itself’.

He sees potential for further growth, despite a lack of clear policy around land. ‘There have been arguments that South Africa is not prioritising property rights and therefore there are risks,’ says Sihlobo. ‘But these have always been incorrect. South Africa embraces title deeds. This is also why the government will now release 2.5 million ha of government land with title deeds to new beneficiaries to boost agricultural production. We see this as a key area of growth.

‘South Africa’s agriculture could still see its gross value added expand by 30%, and we could see jobs expand by 300 000, and we have 2.5 million ha of land that will now come into production,’ he adds. ‘Our agriculture is also integrated into the world market and has access to the best technologies. All these make this an exciting industry to participate in.’

That said, risks still loom – particularly in the form of El Niño’s gathering storm clouds (or, in drought-threatened southern Africa, the dangerous absence of any rainclouds at all).

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) recently warned that the region faces a greater-than-50% probability of agricultural drought as El Niño conditions develop. SA has been identified as one of the regions most exposed to the climate pattern, with more than a 60% chance of a severe El Niño.

The warning is significant ‘because it is based on more than four decades of historical climate and vegetation data, allowing governments and producers to identify where drought risks are likely to emerge before the season begins’, says Packirisamy.

‘Investors are increasingly looking beyond yield potential to assess water security, irrigation infrastructure, soil health and climate adaptation,’ she says.

Rain-fed summer crops such as maize, soya beans and sunflowers are the most exposed to prolonged dry conditions, especially across the summer rainfall regions. Livestock producers are also vulnerable because of deteriorating grazing conditions and rising feed costs. By contrast, crops such as sorghum are naturally more drought-tolerant, while certain macadamia varieties, olives, pomegranates and prickly pears – which require less water once established than many traditional crops – are increasingly attracting interest in water-constrained regions.

‘In response, South African farmers are increasingly adopting drip and micro-irrigation, soil moisture monitoring, weather stations, satellite imagery and digital irrigation scheduling to maximise water efficiency,’ says Packirisamy. ‘Combined with conservation agriculture practices such as minimum tillage and cover cropping, these technologies are helping producers maintain yields while using less water.’

But perhaps the biggest risk to the agriculture sector is that, owing to its complexity, there is no single risk that can be easily isolated and mitigated.

‘What has changed, particularly over the past decade, is that the risk environment surrounding African agriculture has become far more interconnected and far less predictable,’ says Loffie Brandt, sector executive for agriculture at Absa AgriBusiness.

Brandt points to a cornucopia of risks, ranging from climate unpredictability to rising input costs, geopolitical threats and the simple fact that agricultural cycles do not move at the same speed as geopolitical events or commodity markets.

‘The reality is that many of these pressures no longer behave like temporary disruptions that businesses can simply wait out until conditions normalise again,’ he says.

‘The operating environment itself has changed. More producers are starting to recognise that resilience now depends less on getting through a difficult season and more on building operations capable of absorbing repeated instability over longer periods of time.’

To illustrate that complexity, Johann Kotzé, CEO of AgriSA, painted a picture of what awaited SA’s newly appointed Minister of Agriculture, Willie Aucamp. ‘Trace a pallet of citrus from a Limpopo orchard to a Rotterdam supermarket, and the minister’s real portfolio reveals itself,’ said Kotzé.

‘The fruit travels on provincial roads, through Transnet’s rail and ports, in a cold chain powered by an electricity system overseen by another ministry, into markets negotiated by Trade and International Relations, grown with water licensed by yet another department and protected by a police service reporting to another still. At no point does the Department of Agriculture hold the only decisive lever.’

To all of that, one must add delays at ports, congestion in cold-chain storage, inefficiencies in freight logistics and the recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (declared a national disaster following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address in February 2026).

Despite the headwinds, the sector continues to demonstrate that it can compete globally – as shown by those annual and quarterly growth figures, achieved despite an uncertain global trade environment.

‘The European Union remains a critical destination for high-value South African exports such as citrus, table grapes, wine and deciduous fruit, but producers face growing compliance requirements around pesticide residues, sustainability standards and supply-chain transparency,’ says Packirisamy.

‘At the same time, Asia, particularly China and the Middle East, presents significant growth opportunities for products ranging from fruit and nuts to beef and mutton, provided South Africa can maintain strong animal health standards and continue expanding market access.’

Meanwhile, the Department of Science, Technology and Innovation, in partnership with the FAO, is developing a Science, Technology and Innovation Roadmap for Agriculture, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. This strategic initiative aims to promote the development of new high-value crops, livestock and agroprocessed products, and create expanded opportunities for women and youth in rural areas.

All of this creates a fertile landscape for investors in SA’s agricultural sector. Granted, they must price in risks such as logistics bottlenecks, water security, climate variability and policy uncertainty. ‘But these are increasingly areas where investment can create a competitive advantage,’ says Packirisamy.

‘Investors who back efficient producers with strong export market access, resilient water and energy strategies and integrated supply chains are investing in one of the few sectors that has consistently generated value from offshore earnings, supported rural employment and demonstrated longterm global competitiveness, even when the broader South African economy has struggled,’ she says.

By Mark van Dijk
Image: Gallo/Getty Images