When life gives you lemons… Be thankful the lemons reached you in the first place. An independent study commissioned by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy found that SA’s citrus industry suffered R5.2 billion in direct and indirect costs owing to inefficient logistics last year. Wastage cost R1.1 billion alone, as the perishable fruits felt the effects of delays on the roads and at the country’s ports.

For Boitshoko Ntshabele, incoming CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association, the cost made it clear that ‘large-scale public private partnerships at ports across South Africa are urgently needed’. ‘While the findings of the impact assessment are deeply concerning, the CGA views this as an opportunity to collaborate with stakeholders and implement effective solutions,’ he said.

But while spoiled citrus fruits are a potent reminder of SA’s domestic challenges, there’s also a bigger picture at play here. The past five years have brought massive volatility in global logistics, caused by a perfect storm of post-pandemic backlogs, the effects of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the more recent talks of tariffs and trade wars.

The United States’ ‘liberation day’ tariff announcements in April 2025 sent ripples through African economies, even though the region – including SA – is not a direct participant in the US-China stand-off.

Gerald Katsenga, head of global markets corporate sales at Absa Regional Operations, has a pragmatic view. ‘As much as we are in the midst of what might prove to be a prolonged trade war, there is still demand for commodities and goods and services,’ he says. ‘As a corporate treasurer, you will want to defend margins on your goods sold or bought, whether that’s monthly or quarterly. If you can put some form of FX hedge on those, it will help protect those margins on your exports or imports.’

Katsenga says shifting trade allegiances to China may offer some short-term relief to sub-Saharan African economies, but it also amplifies the region’s collective exposure to Chinese economic fluctuations. ‘In that context, the African Continental Free Trade Area offers an important response to global uncertainties,’ he says. ‘The AfCFTA, including initiatives like the Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), could provide a crucial barrier to these ongoing global shocks by increasing Africa’s intra-regional trade beyond its current level of 14%, thereby reducing the region’s heavy reliance on offshore trade partners. We live in a global economy, and no matter who we choose as our trade partners, we will always feel the effects of tensions between East and West. But Africa need not be caught in the middle. On the one hand, these trade wars present a crisis; on the other hand, they could be just the catalyst we need to accelerate the effective implementation of the AfCFTA.’

The AfCFTA is, however, still in its early stages. The reality right now is that global supply chains have been upended, and SA’s own problems – such as having 70 000 containers stuck at anchorage off the Durban coast in the summer of 2023-24 – have only made the problem worse for local businesses.

Transport Minister Barbara Creecy doesn’t need to be told this. ‘An efficient and functioning transport sector is the key to a successful economy,’ she told the South African Transport Conference in July 2024. ‘Our roads and rail network are the arteries of our nation, should move people and goods safely, speedily and affordably across the length and breadth of South Africa, and facilitate our connectivity with the African continent and the wider world.’

But those arteries are clogged, and the economy is wheezing and clutching its chest as a result. ‘We all know today that our sector is not operating as either an effective economic facilitator or social service,’ said Creecy. ‘When our transport systems suffer, our economy faces depressed economic growth, declining investment and working people cannot get to their jobs affordably or on time, and we see a rise in unemployment in a country that desperately needs more jobs.’

The challenges are severe. A Deloitte report offered a bleak picture. ‘Years of underinvestment in economic infrastructure have led to a massive infrastructure gap. According to a joint report by the Development Bank of South Africa and the World Bank, SA needs to spend between R1 trillion and R1.5 trillion on transport infrastructure between 2022 and 2030, to close its Sustainable Development Goal gap in the sector.’

At the same time, Business Day reported that the national economy was losing R1 billion a day in missed trade opportunities owing to those transport and logistics bottlenecks.

In May 2025, a year after her previous comments, Minister Creecy outlined critical reforms to revive the logistics sector. ‘Transnet has developed a recovery plan aimed at stabilising port and rail volumes,’ she told the Rand Merchant Bank Think Summit.

‘The establishment of various “war rooms” for specific corridors and commodities has allowed Transnet and the private sector to collaborate and share expertise and address challenges such as derailments and unplanned maintenance,’ she said.

‘Business and Transnet have co-operated to improve maintenance and security on key freight corridors and hope to find ongoing short-term mechanisms to promote investment in the rail network while the longer-term reform agenda rolls out.’

The minister acknowledged that the improved freight volumes (161 million tons per annum in March 2025) were ‘still a long way from our 2030 target of 220 million tons’.

Elvin Harris, president of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILTSA), believes that SA’s supply chain challenges go beyond the built infrastructure. He points to issues around labour, operating costs and the costs of regulatory compliance (particularly when one’s competitors are not compliant). ‘While these may not be directly related to infrastructure, they contribute to an industry that’s under pressure,’ he says.

Harris says that port and rail are the major choke points. ‘It’s clear there’s not enough money between government and Transnet, so they’re trying to bring in private-sector investment to improve the infrastructure and fix the bottlenecks,’ he says.

The private sector is responding. Speaking at a recent Transport Forum conference, Theo Pappas, Southern Africa and Indian Ocean Islands area head of sales at AP Moller-Maersk, acknowledged that ‘challenges are well documented, and we are struggling with failing infrastructure, but – and more so post-Covid-19 – there is a greater willingness of business to come together to find solutions. There is a clear appetite for business in Africa as a market that they want to grow in and we are willing to invest in infrastructure, including in South Africa’.

But Harris warns that the supply chain challenges are not limited to the country’s ports – even though those garner most of the headlines. ‘Clearly, rail and the ports are the biggest constraints in the logistics system, but road is not without its issues,’ he says. ‘Road is often overlooked. Huge chunks of our national road network are in average to poor condition. If that is improved, it improves the velocity of the supply chain. If you’re travelling somewhere on a gravel road, the trip can take two to three times longer than if you were on a standard smooth asphalt road. Truck operators can easily have up to 30% extra operating costs because of poor road conditions. This adds to costs and reduces reliability, because poor roads also increase your risk of punctures or accidents; and it slows down the whole supply chain because you have to reduce your road speed and drive more cautiously.’

Harris cites a 2019 University of Cape Town study that estimated the national backlog for road maintenance to be in excess of R420 billion. That, he says, was six years ago.

‘People tend to over-focus on rail, thinking that once we shift cargo onto on rail we won’t have to worry about our roads,’ he says. ‘They forget that South Africa is competing in an international marketplace, against other countries with good transport networks. If so much of our road network is not fully maintained and up to speed, it slows down our supply chain and pushes up our operating costs.’

While the sector pours its energies into solving the crisis at SA’s ports, it cannot afford to do so at the expense of other parts of the logistics supply chain. And while plans are in place to solve the sector’s many problems, there are still some bumpy roads ahead.

By Mark van Dijk