Santa Claus used to come down the chimney. Today the festive figure (or his helpers) arrives at your pre-loaded address – no sleigh or reindeer, just a scooter or delivery vehicle bringing the items on your wish list.

E-commerce isn’t just an end-of-year thing anymore, nor is it limited to Black November or Cyber Monday. It’s how South Africans live these days. It’s how we order our gifts, our groceries, our car licences and credit cards, our crates of craft beer and the new shirt you wore to the office year-end party (which, for a change, was held in person and not via Teams).

E-commerce is now so central to retail that it’s simply called online retail. According to the Online Retail 2025 report – published by World Wide Worx and sponsored by Mastercard, Peach Payments and Ask Afrika – online sales are approaching 10% of the national market; specifically, the report notes that online transactions are expected to comprise 9.8% of all retail sales.

‘South Africa’s e-commerce market is shifting from rapid growth to structural expansion,’ says Arthur Goldstuck, CEO of World Wide Worx. ‘Online retail grew 35% in 2024 and now accounts for 8% of total retail, with the sector on track to reach 9% to 10% by the end of 2025. By 2027, it is expected to surpass 12% of all retail, which marks the moment online shopping becomes a mainstream default rather than an alternative channel.’

Market analysts have seen this coming. In 2023, RMB reported that South Africans had spent R59 billion online during 2022 and were expected to spend up to R225 billion by 2025 – an increase of nearly 300% over the three-year period from 2022 to 2025.

‘Recent global events have accelerated this behavioural transition, with the post-Covid lockdown era being largely characterised by consumers who have grown accustomed to the convenience and flexibility of shopping online,’ Mandisa Guliwe, e-commerce manager for Anglophone Africa at Schneider Electric, said in 2024. ‘Beyond the convenience factor, one of the key drivers contributing to the significant shift in consumer behaviour towards online purchasing in South Africa is accessibility. E-commerce allows businesses to service customers in areas where they do not have a physical presence.’

While the pandemic lockdowns played a role in the phenomenal growth of online retail, larger forces have been driving it in recent years. As Goldstuck notes, Covid-19 ‘was an accelerant, but the sustained growth since then shows the boom is rooted in something much deeper’. Online retail doubled between 2019 and 2021, which reflected lockdown conditions. But, instead of flattening afterwards, the sector kept accelerating, with growth above 30% in 2024 and 2025.

The bigger picture is that in 2024, SA online retail expanded by about 35%, while offline retail grew by just 2.5% in the same year. And as the Online Retail 2025 report emphasises, online retail ‘is not simply growing faster; it is fundamentally reshaping the composition of South Africa’s retail economy’. Goldstuck says ‘the transformation has become structural, as convenience becomes a habit’.

‘Once consumers experienced reliable home delivery and easy returns, those expectations stuck. Retailers responded by investing heavily in fulfilment centres, dark stores, logistics technology and smoother, more secure payment systems. These investments permanently improved the online shopping experience.

‘Trust strengthened as well, with nearly half of South African online consumers now expressing greater confidence in local platforms than in international ones. Meanwhile, innovations like instant EFT, PayShap, digital wallets and buy-now-pay-later options lowered the friction of online transactions. Covid lit the fuse, but the ecosystem kept the momentum going,’ he says.

This expanding ecosystem includes the on-demand shopping apps of retail giants Shoprite (Checkers Sixty60), Pick n Pay (asap) and Woolworths (Woolies Dash), alongside e-tail leaders such as Takealot and their global counterparts Amazon, Temu and Shein, as well as a variety of smaller retailers, boutiques and online-only platforms.

While the online retail segment is growing, there is still significant potential for expansion. The report Seizing the Moment: Unlocking South Africa’s Ecommerce Promise – published by the Ecommerce Forum South Africa (EFSA) with the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflections (Mistra) and the Takealot Group –highlights that SA’s township economy remains an untapped R900 billion opportunity for e-commerce growth.

More than 60% of micro and small-to-medium enterprises (MSMEs) in these areas are still informal, cash-based and disconnected from digital infrastructure. Bridging this gap by connecting sellers and buyers to the broader online retail economy could accelerate growth further.

Meanwhile, Gareth Paterson, director of client strategy at consumer intelligence company Nielsen IQ (NIQ) South Africa, identifies two further opportunities for growth. One is groceries and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), which might surprise casual observers. ‘Quick commerce’ grocery apps have changed the way South Africans shop, with Checkers Sixty60’s teal-clad scooters almost a feature of suburban traffic.

But speaking ahead of the Converge 2025 digital commerce conference, Paterson said that in more mature e-commerce markets that NIQ tracks, the e-commerce share of value for FMCG is on par with that of tech and durable (T&D) goods. In SA, the FMCG share ofe-commerce value is only around 2%, compared to 17% for T&D. That suggests a market primed for growth.

‘Our data shows that online T&D sales grew by 11% in 2024 as consumers sought better deals online,’ said Paterson. ‘We expect to see a similar appetite among grocery shoppers for finding value and convenience on digital platforms. However, growth will likely vary significantly by category. Items like personal care, diapers and fragrances are poised to grow faster, while fresh produce may continue to lag due to higher barriers to entry.’

The other opportunity is e-commerce driven by social media. ‘We’re expecting to see social commerce and other emerging e-commerce models gain traction in the months ahead,’ said Paterson. ‘Consumers who are active on social media platforms may find it natural to shop as part of their online experience. Similarly, as logistical infrastructure develops, demand for quick commerce solutions may increase in urban centres. Retailers will need to be nimble to keep up with changes in tech and consumer behaviour.’

Goldstuck expects global players – such as Amazon, Temu and Shein – to influence SA’s e-commerce landscape. ‘But none will dominate it,’ he says.

‘Temu and Shein made a dramatic entrance, reaching an estimated R7.3 billion in 2024, but that remains a small share of national retail. Their growth is now cooling as VAT on low-value parcels, full import tariffs and tighter customs enforcement erode their pricing advantage.’

Amazon’s entry has been measured, with steady category expansion and a long-term localisation strategy that includes a walk-in seller centre in Cape Town. ‘It is raising service expectations without overwhelming the market,’ says Goldstuck.

He believes Walmart’s renewed digital push through Massmart might ultimately prove the most transformative. ‘Unlike the pure online entrants, Walmart combines global e-commerce expertise with an extensive South African store and distribution footprint, giving it the ability to shift competition in general merchandise and home goods,’ he says.

Yet despite – or perhaps because of – that foreign invasion, SA retailers remain highly competitive. ‘They offer faster delivery, easier returns, strong loyalty ecosystems and deep knowledge of local consumer behaviour,’ says Goldstuck. ‘Some 75% of retailers surveyed believe their e-commerce capabilities outper-form those of global rivals. The next chapter in South Africa’s online retail story will not be one of foreign domination, but of intensified competition in which global and local players coexist. South African consumers will benefit from a more dynamic, more sophisticated online retail environment.’

It’s clear that SA online retail has entered a decisive phase of transformation, with growth potential in many directions. Reflecting on the explosive last five years, Goldstuck predicts a very different online retail landscape five years from now.

‘This next phase will be defined by heightened expectations around convenience,’ he says. ‘Grocery apps delivering within an hour have reset national benchmarks, pushing retailers to compete on the speed, predictability and quality of fulfilment as much as on price. At the same time, omnichannel behaviour is becoming normalised. South Africans switch fluidly between WhatsApp, apps, desktop and physical stores, and retailers that link these touchpoints seamlessly will win long-term loyalty. The underlying transformative trend is that the customer base is widening: online shopping is spreading rapidly across middle-income households, secondary cities and older age groups. By the end of the decade, e-commerce will be a fully embedded part of everyday shopping behaviour.’

Some might argue that in some parts of the economy, and at certain times of year, that’s happened already.

By Mark van Dijk